Kentucky Derby 134

The Kentucky Derby is the largest intrigue in American Racing, yet a very poor way to make any money as a handicapper, as my good friend would put it, "It is the Western Lottery". The Derby this year appears to have a monster in the field, Big Brown. Despite recent rumors of health concerns, his Thursday blowout is impressive and reminiscent of the way past trainers have led up to races. The inexperience of Big Brown also causes a bit of hesitation, in the Florida Derby he appeared green and had a few uneven strides, which will be magnified by the chaotic atmosphere that is Churchill Downs. The fact he has never lost a race is hard to overlook and at 3-1 he is definitely worth a shot, but he is likely to be bet down to 2-1, if not lower.

Colonel John is Brown's main foe in the race, coming off of the synthetic blended tracks of Southern California, he has been the most consistent on the Western tracks and his Santa Anita Derby run was quite impressive as he was sent out hopelessly wide to catch Bob Black Jack shortly before the finish line. The switch from synthetics to dirt is the trickiest part of handicapping, as the statistical data is clouded and lacking, the few Southern California horses who have run on dirt have run quite well, which serves Colonel John well as he has dispatched these horses quite easily in California. Eoin Harty, the trainer of Colonel John, has done a spectacular job preparing his horse for the Derby, with 3 work outs since April 14th, one at Churchill Downs that was incredibly fast, showing he might like the surface. 

The other contenders:

Eight Belles, the lone filly in the race seems a rather sexy pick. Her speed figures are much better than most of the boys, yet the lack of a top tier jockey makes this horse suspect. She has had a great work at Churchill, but she would have easily won the Oaks. Owner Rick Porter is dying to win the Derby, but it seems like a shot in the dark. I wouldn't throw her out of exotics though as she might well be closing with Colonel John on Big Brown. 

Court Vision has easily the best breeding in the race and was flying at the end of the Wood Memorial. Bill Mott, his trainer, has elected to put blinkers on for the first time in the Derby, which might work against the horse, unless he is just a high strung critter in which case it would be a good move. 

Pyro's Bluegrass flop is a race to completely through out, as Keeneland's Polytrack is the quarkiest track in the country.  His best races have come in his 2 year old season, but he seems to be progressing well, but he may suffer from Volponi syndrome, running second and third a lot, then eventually winning the big one. Definitely put him in exotics if you choose to play them. 

Denis of Cork is the last of the major contenders. His Illinois Derby was a flop, but year after year that race produces a speed horse, who goes wire to wire, which does not suit his running style. If the fractions get out of control he'll be right there running horses down at the end. 

The throw outs: 

Monba is the most overrated horse in the field of 20 horses. I recently got into a heated debate with a high profile, internationally known handicapper over the merits of this horse. The horse is a synthetic and turf specialist, and his trainer and owner just want to have a horse in the Derby. Yes, Monba did win a 1 mile first level allowance race at Churchill, but the speed figure was low and his last dirt start wouldn't have won a $4000 claiming race. 

Adriano, another ridiculously over-hyped horse, all of his wins have come on Turf or Polytrack. His one dirt race had him finishing 19 lengths behind the winner. Todd Pletcher is really stretching with both Monba and Adriano. 

Z Humor is the best of the throw outs, who has a chance of making me look stupid. The horse just looks to be going in the wrong direction. His workout line shows a steady decline in speed and his last race was a high speed figure, but he was losing ground, which is not a good sign for a stalking horse whose last few races have looked like he wants to be on the lead early. 

The rest of the field has some decent horses, that I just don't have a good read on. Cool Coal Man, Tale of Ekati, Z Fortune, Smooth Air and Gayego all seem to be good enough but have thrown in a clunker or just don't seem to have the right running style to get the job done, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see any of these horses get the job done on Saturday. 

This field of the 3 year olds is the least intriguing in years and we very well might see another year, where all 3 races are split by different winners. If Big Brown, wins the Derby and remains healthy for the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes will be fascinating as a brother to Jazil and Rags to Riches, the last two winners of the Belmont Stakes, seems poised to challenge a potential Triple Crown candidate (my guess is no Triple Crown winner this year).